U.S. authorities arrested eight Tajik nationals with suspected ties to ISIS, and China’s president prepared for July visit to country.

Media 11 June reported arrest of eight Tajik nationals in U.S. with possible ties to Islamic State (ISIS); according to U.S. media, arrests raised concerns among national security officials about potential terror attacks on U.S. soil. Russian authorities previously arrested number of Tajik nationals for alleged role in deadly attack at Moscow concert hall in March. Meanwhile, China’s Foreign Ministry 30 June announced that, beginning 2 July, Chinese President Xi Jinping would attend Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Kazakh capital, Astana, and visit Tajikistan.

Incident occurred at Kyrgyz-Tajik border.  

Kyrgyzstan’s State Committee for National Security 7 May said security forces fired warning shots at Tajik shepherds, who had crossed border into its Batken region to graze their livestock and reportedly thrown stones at military; Kyrgyz and Tajik border services next day issued statement saying sides had organised meeting in Batken to discuss ways to prevent further such incidents. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy 24 May urged Central Asian leaders to attend peace summit in Switzerland in June (see Ukraine).

Authorities contended with aftermath of terrorist attack in Russia, and UK’s FM visited Tajikistan during regional tour. 

Tajikistan continued to deal with aftermath of Moscow terrorist attack. By end of April, Russian authorities had detained twelve people in connection with March terrorist attack in capital Moscow, eleven of whom hail from Tajikistan. Senior Russian official Nikolai Patrushev 3 April claimed Ukraine’s embassy in capital Dushanbe was recruiting mercenaries to fight against Russia; foreign ministry 6 April dismissed allegation, saying it “has no basis”. FM Muhriddin 12 April criticised torture of four detained Tajik suspects and decried rising anti-Tajik sentiment in Russia. Meanwhile, Russia and Tajikistan 15-18 April held joint military exercises in southern Khatlon region, which borders Afghanistan, after sides late March pledged to intensify joint counterterrorism efforts. 

In important international developments. Uzbek President Mirziyaev 18-19 April visited Tajikistan, meeting with Rahmon and other high-level officials and signing slew of cooperation agreements. UK FM David Cameron 22 April embarked on five-day tour of region, beginning in Tajikistan; trip sought to deepen diplomatic and economic ties in region, and to address concerns about circumvention of sanctions on Russia. Defence minister 26 April attended regional forum Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in Kazakhstan amid efforts to boost military cooperation.

Tajik and Russian leaders pledged to intensify joint counterterrorism efforts following terrorist attack in Russian capital; Tajik-Kyrgyz border talks continued to progress.  

Russian authorities charged four Tajik citizens in connection with terrorist attack. Following 22 March deadly terrorist attack in Russian capital Moscow, for which Islamic State (ISIS) claimed responsibility, Russian authorities arrested four Tajik citizens, who appeared in court 24 March to hear charges, bearing visible signs of abuse (see Russia). President Rahmon 24 March condemned attack during call with Russian President Putin; Kremlin afterwards said pair had agreed to intensify joint counterterrorism efforts. Tajik authorities next day began questioning suspects’ relatives; according to 29 March media reports, Tajik authorities reportedly detained at least nine people in connection with attack. Meanwhile, Russia witnessed uptick in anti-Tajik sentiment, with migrants reportedly subjected to verbal abuse and harassment from law enforcement. 

Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan agreed on over 10km of border. Tajik-Kyrgyz talks on border delimitation and demarcation 12-17 March took place in Sughd region. Kyrgyz officials 17 March announced sides had agreed on just under 11km of border and signed protocols; parties agreed to hold next meeting in Kyrgyzstan.

Tajikistan made progress on border deal with Kyrgyzstan and sought to improve water resource management with Uzbekistan; UN, EU and Central Asian officials held talks on Afghanistan. 

Dushanbe pursued border talks with Bishkek and opened water-monitoring station with Tashkent. State news agency Khovar 5 Feb reported that Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan had agreed on another 3.71km of state border as sides inched closer toward final agreement. President Rahmon same day met with Kyrgyz FM Kulubayev in capital Dushanbe; pair reportedly discussed recent progress on border delimitation, as well as water resource management. Meanwhile, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan 23 Feb installed two new measuring stations along border to monitor transboundary water flows in effort to improve cooperation on water resource management. 

Officials attended talks on Afghanistan. Tajik representatives 14 Feb attended meeting in Kyrgyzstan along with UN Special Representative for Afghanistan and other Central Asian, EU officials ahead of UN-sponsored conference on Afghanistan 18-19 Feb in Qatar. Meeting came amid efforts among regional powers for closer engagement with Kabul, and reportedly focused on current challenges obstructing assistance to Afghanistan and how to ensure country’s long-term peace and stability.

Watchdog painted grim picture of media freedom in Tajikistan, and Türkiye’s foreign minister hinted at possible border deal between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan during working visit. 

Watchdog warned of intensified media crackdown since 2022. Committee to Protect Journalists 4 Jan warned in its annual report that Tajikistan’s media “are in their worst state since the violent years of the civil war” of 1992-1997. Watchdog said series of harsh sentences handed down to seven journalists in 2022 and 2023 marked “a deeply chilling escalation in the years-long constriction of independent media”, with several journalists reportedly linking crackdown to suppression of May-June 2022 protests in Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region. 

Türkiye’s FM hinted at imminent border deal between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. President Rahmon and FM Muhriddin 10 Jan met with Türkiye’s FM Hakan Fidan in capital Dushanbe to discuss bilateral ties, with sides reportedly stressing need to boost cooperation “in all areas of mutual interest”. Speaking with reporters after meeting, Fidan also hinted that Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan could sign border deal in March 2024, but offered few details.

Talks between Tajik and Kyrgyz security officials on disputed border issue continued.

Chief of State Committee for National Security Saimumin Yatimov and his Kyrgyz counterpart Kamchybek Tashiev 12 Dec said 90% of Kyrgyz-Tajik border had been agreed upon following negotiations in Kyrgyzstan’s Batken city, and promised talks on remaining parts of disputed border would continue; earlier, pair 1 Dec announced progress on issue after talks in Buston town. Kyrgz President Sadyr Japarov 11 Dec said he hoped sides could finalise border demarcation by spring of 2024.

Iranian president visited Dushanbe amid deepening ties, and FMs from Central Asian countries attended G7 online meeting.

Tajik and Iranian presidents pledged to boost ties. Iranian President Raisi 8 Nov met with President Rahmon in capital Dushanbe to discuss bilateral ties; pair signed raft of documents, including memorandums of understanding on visa-free visits for citizens, transportation, economic and technological cooperation, and efforts to tackle drug-trafficking.

G7 hosted Central Asian FMs for virtual meeting. During 7-8 Nov G7 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Japan, FMs from Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan 8 Nov attended virtual session amid efforts by G7 to strengthen engagement with Central Asia. G7 promised to “support the sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of Central Asian countries” and to strengthen cooperation on “regional challenges”, such as impact of war in Ukraine, water security and climate change. Meanwhile, Belarus 23 Nov hosted Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization summit, bringing together leaders from Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan (see Belarus).

Bishkek and Dushanbe made progress on border delimitation and demarcation.

Heads of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan’s security services 2 Oct reportedly signed protocol in Kyrgyzstan’s Batken city on demarcation and delimitation of disputed border areas; neither side published details of protocol, but Chairman of Kyrgyzstan’s Committee for National Security Kamchybek Tashiev said it “provides a basis for resolving all border issues”. Tajik and Kyrgyz leaders 13 Oct met for further discussions on sidelines of Commonwealth of Independent States summit in Kyrgyzstan (see Kyrgyzstan).

Tensions with Kyrgyzstan increased over top Kyrgyz official’s border dispute comments; U.S. president met with Central Asian leaders amid growing engagement in region.

Tajikistan summoned Kyrgyz ambassador following remarks on border dispute. One year on from deadly clashes along disputed part of Kyrgyz-Tajik border, Kyrgyz National Security Committee head Kamchybek Tashiev 15 Sept urged Tajikistan to renounce its territorial claims to Kyrgyzstan; Foreign Ministry 16 Sept summoned Kyrgyz ambassador and 18 Sept warned that “such comments could seriously damage the ongoing negotiation process on delimitation and demarcation of the Tajik-Kyrgyz border”.

Central Asian leaders pledged greater regional cooperation. Tajikistan 14-15 Sept hosted leaders of Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan in capital Dushanbe, as well as Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev who attended as “honoured guest”. Leaders discussed ways to promote trade, tackle insecurity and better manage energy resources amid water shortages across region.

U.S. president held summit with Central Asian leaders in New York. U.S. President Joe Biden 19 September met with Central Asian leaders on sidelines of 78th UN General Assembly in New York amid stepped-up efforts to bolster ties in region. Biden hailed “historic” meeting and pledged greater cooperation in number of areas, including security, trade and investment, and regional connectivity. NGO Human Rights Watch day prior issued statement noting “renewed focus” on region following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and warning Biden not to “allow this to eclipse urgent human rights concerns”. Meanwhile, Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation 1-6 Sept held military exercises in Belarus, with troops from Russia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan participating.